- SNP leader says party would have ‘huge ability’ to shape a coalition
- Labour will launch ‘NHS week’ to focus on health policy
- Ed Miliband to address Scottish TUC in Glasgow
- Cameron and Osborne campaigning in Cheshire
Paul Mason, Channel 4 News’ economics editor, has used his regular Guardian column to flag up anoher element of the Trident debate: if the missile system is renewed, will it even be effective?
The unpalatable truth – for those who believe in nuclear deterrence – may be that four new submarines are not enough. All the things touted as alternatives to the current Trident system – cruise missiles, free-fall bombs and static silos – might be needed on top of it. Without a clear, public assessment of the new threat, nobody knows what the new minimum deterrent really is, or if it can deter at all.
For those who oppose nuclear deterrence as a concept, the challenge is to spell out an alternative doctrine to deal with the Russian threat.
The election is over and the result is in: another coalition, with one of the main parties likely to need propping up by a smaller, vehemently anti-EU group. In Finland, that is.
The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Severin Carrell, has some more on John Swinney’s interview on the Today programme:
Ending austerity has become the “sharp point” of the general election campaign and will be the primary focus for the SNP at Westminster, John Swinney, the Scottish deputy first minister, has told Radio 4’s Today programme.
Speaking before the Scottish National party publishes its 2015 manifesto near Edinburgh, Swinney said that fighting public spending cuts at UK level was the chief priority for the party.
The Labour party has tweeted the poster which goes with its “NHS week” focus, being formally launched later this morning.
The NHS is on life support after five years of the Tories. Cameron is planning to double the pace of cuts next year. pic.twitter.com/v72S7neJNm
The media campaign group Hacked Off has commissioned a YouGov poll which found that more than half of people believe Ed Miliband receives negative coverage in the press. A mere 17% thought he was featured positively, against 36% who believed this of David Cameron. Read the full story here.
John Swinney, Scotland’s deputy first minister, has just endured a somewhat testy interview on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in which James Naughtie repeatedly pressed him on whether the SNP would potentially bring down a Labour government over the issue of Trident. By my count Naughtie asked this specific question five times. On each occasion Swinney dodged it. “You’re really avoiding the question, again, and again and again,” sighed an exasperated Naughtie.
The sharp point to this election is that we have an opportunity to bring austerity to an end, and that will be the first priority of SNP MPs.
Meanwhile, not everyone is seemingly gripped by the prospect of post-election governmental chaos.
Interesting article in #CSQuarterly about the future of driving: http://t.co/a76BZZlcJw
The Liberal Democrats have launched what they’re terming a “five-point plan for teachers and parents”, which is largely just a condensed version of their existing plans for education.
.@nick_clegg announces five point plan for teachers & parents http://t.co/sNK11sfk07 #GE2015 #libdems pic.twitter.com/FopY5xktgj
Hello everyone, and welcome to another all-day chronicle of the latest election news, as we enter the second-last full week of campaigning, with all the polls still pointing towards some variant on a hung parliament. I’m Peter Walker, getting things going before Andrew Sparrow takes us through most of the day. Let us know your thoughts, whether in the comments below or via Twitter. I’m @peterwalker99, he’s @andrewsparrow.
With fixed-term parliaments, it gives parties in a minority-government situation – [where] hopefully the SNP will be in a position of influence – huge ability to change the direction of a government without bringing a government down.
There are very limited circumstances in that act where you can trigger a general election, but what you can do is build alliances to change the direction of a government on particular issues and that is what the SNP would seek to do.
THE TIMES: We will hold UK defence to ransom, SNP warns #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/KF4HaM2O5f
TELEGRAPH: SNP's ransom note to Miliband #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/Id6JnuyN1g
MIRROR: Your country needs you....to vote! #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/X1efyVc9UF
On present evidence the Scottish nationalists are more likely than the Lib Dems to hold the balance of power on May 8. The SNP is a separatist party on the cusp of national power, and is not afraid to say how it would use it.
It would back Labour on cutting tuition fees, scrapping the coalition’s welfare reforms and fixing energy prices. The signs are that at the same time it would hold the UK budget to ransom with line-item deliberations more familiar in Washington.
Like the more earnest characters in Star Wars, the leaders of minor parties who are angling for a pact always promise to bring balance to the Force. In almost all cases, this is wildly misleading. If you think coalition was bad – backroom deals, cut-and-paste policymaking, good ideas lost in the quicksand between the two parties – then try the looser varieties of alliance.
David Steel’s account of the Lib-Lab pact of 1977-78, A House Divided, should be required reading. “The House of Commons did enjoy a period when it actually controlled the executive,” writes Steel. “Unless the government could muster by argument a majority, its measures could not pass.” All of which is fine, as long as the constituent parties understand and accept this transfer of power and are prepared for five years of gruelling parliamentary negotiation over absolutely everything.
The share offer will raise billions of pounds, helping taxpayers to get back the money that the last Labour government put in, and reducing the national debt. This is another example of our long-term plan in action – cleaning up the mess we inherited, dealing with our debts, rewarding hard-working taxpayers and rebalancing the economy towards investment and saving.
What is clear is that the election is close and pollsters face a number of challenges in correctly reflecting voting intention in national opinion polls. There appear to be some differences when considering survey mode, at least when considering UKIP and the sheer number of parties involved present real challenges.
Any one of them being significantly out creates a potential problem. Finally, the age old problem of potential ‘shy Tory’ voters could rear its head again whilst turnout in Scotland could also have a significant impact in the eventual result too.
Labour are only set to win about as many seats as the Tories. So why do we think Miliband must be favoured to be the next PM? Because governments aren’t necessarily formed by the largest party; the next one will be formed by whomever can cobble together 323 seats...
According to our forecast, the ‘anti-Tory’ parties – Labour, the SNP, and smaller parties like the Greens, Plaid Cymru, SDLP and Respect – are going to win 337 MPs, 14 more than they need to ‘lock Cameron out’, as Alex Salmond put it to us last month.
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